Climate Change Risk Assessment Shows UK Needs to Adapt

The UK is set to be amongst the best prepared nations for the implications of climate change following publication of a groundbreaking study into the threats the country faces. The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) highlights the top 100 challenges to the UK and its economy of a changing climate and provides the most compelling evidence yet of the need to increase its resilience. The research confirms the UK as a world-leader in understanding climate risk to ensure it can make robust plans to deal with these threats.

In order to provide a reliable baseline for decisions by Government, local authorities and businesses the research does not take into account any future policies or plans. However, a Government report published alongside the CCRA does highlight the many current and future policies already in place and gives details of plans which will address some of the risks identified.

The Government has also announced a National Adaption Programme that will prepare the UK for the effects of climate change, including the risks set out in the CCRA. Among the key risks the CCRA identifies, in the unlikely event the UK took no further action, are:

* Hotter summers present significant health risks. The CCRA projects that without measures to reduce the risk, there could be between 580-5,900 additional premature deaths per year by the 2050s. The Department for Health launched a Heatwave Plan in 2004 and updates it annually to provide advice and support for people vulnerable to hotter weather.

* Increasing pressure on the UK’s water resources. The CCRA projects that without action to improve water resources, there could be major supply shortages by the 2050s in parts of the north, south and east of England with the greatest challenge in the Thames River basin.

* The risks of flooding are projected to increase significantly across the UK. New analysis for England and Wales show that if no further plans were made to adapt to changing flood risks, by the 2080s due the effects of climate change and population growth annual damages to buildings and property could reach between £2.1billion and £12 billion, compared to current costs of £1.2 billion.

* The number of days in an average year when temperatures rise above 26 degrees C is projected to rise from 18 days to between 27-121 days in London by the 2080s. This could mean greater demand for energy to cool buildings and more heat related illnesses.

* Increases in drought and some pest and diseases could reduce timber yields and quality. Projected drought conditions could mean a drop in timber yields of between 10% and 25% by the 2080s in the south east, driving up timber costs. Pests and diseases, which thrive in warmer conditions, may also pose an increasing threat, such as red band needle blight – which causes loss of foliage and can lead to tree death.

The CCRA also highlights opportunities for the UK that climate change could present, including:

* Opening of Arctic shipping routes. The melting of Arctic sea ice could lead to the opening up of new container shipping routes and improved trade links with Asia and the Pacific.

* Milder winters may result in a major reduction in cold-related deaths and illnesses. Currently, cold weather results in between 26,000 and 57,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. By the 2050s, a reduction in these figures of between 3,900 and 24,000 is projected to occur due to increasing average winter temperatures. This would particularly benefit vulnerable groups, including those with existing health problems.

* Opportunities to improve sustainable food production. Sugar beet yields are projected to increase by 20-70% and wheat yields by 40-140% by the 2050s due to longer growing seasons if water and nutrients remain available. A warmer climate presents opportunities to grow new crops such as soya, sunflowers, peaches, apricots and grapes, while new markets may open up overseas for British grown produce.

The CCRA evidence will be used to develop a National Adaptation Programme (NAP) that will set out timescales for the actions Government will take to meet the challenges of climate change.

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