Provisional greenhouse gas emissions figures released by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) include trends since 1990, and show Ireland’s status in meeting our obligations set under the Kyoto Protocol. Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 0.69 million tonnes (1.1%) in 2010.

Agriculture remains the single largest contributor to overall emissions, at 30.4% of the total, followed by Energy (primarily power generation) and Transport at 21.7% and 19.1%  respectively. The remainder is made up by the Industry and Commercial at 14.9%, the Residential sector at 12.6% and Waste at 1.5%.

The figures show that, while Ireland’s Kyoto limit in the period 2008-2012 is 62.84 million tonnes per annum, Ireland’s combined emissions in 2008, 2009 and 2010 were 6.65 million tonnes above this limit when the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and approved Forest Sinks are taken into account. Taking unused allowances from the ETS into account, Ireland is on track to meet its Kyoto commitment.

”The reduction in Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions is welcome, particularly the continued reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector,” comments Laura Burke, director of EPA. “Ireland is on track to meet our emission limits for 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. However in order to meet the very stringent EU 2020 limits and to move permanently to a low carbon economy, new policies are required to be identified, assessed, adopted and implemented.”

Dr Eimear Cotter, senior manager at EPA, says: :”Emission reductions have been recorded across Transport and Waste with all other sectors showing an increase on 2009 levels. This is despite the economy contracting in 2010 and highlights the challenge we are facing in meeting our emission reduction targets.”

Changes to Sectoral Emissions

The emissions from agriculture increased by 0.04 million tonnes (0.2%) in 2010. This is the first increase in this sector since 2003. The increase in emissions reflects primarily a large increase in fertiliser sales as well as an increase in gas oil use on farms. Declining trends in total cattle numbers and sheep continue in 2010 while swine numbers have increased relative to 2009.

Emissions related to energy are calculated based on SEAI’s annual energy balance and for 2010 were 0.25 million tonnes higher than in 2009 which represents a 1.9% increase. This reflects a reduction in the share of renewables in gross electricity consumption from 14.3% in 2009 to 12.9% in 2010. Wind and hydro resources were less in 2010 which resulted in more electricity generation from coal and gas-fired power stations.

Transport emissions were 1.32 million tonnes lower in 2010 than in 2009. This represents a decrease of 10.1%, following sustained increases in this sector since 1990. The decrease primarily reflects the impact of the economic downturn plus the changes in vehicle registration tax and road tax introduced in mid-2008 and the Biofuels Obligation Scheme. Emissions in 2010 were 131% higher than the 1990 transport emissions.

Industry and commercial emissions increased by 0.1 million tonnes (1.1%) in 2010. This reflects an increase in CO2 emissions from the alumina industry which is offset, to some extent, by the continuing decline in cement production. In particular, returns from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme show emissions from the cement sector peaked in 2007 and have decreased by 55% between 2007 and 2010.

Residential emissions in 2010 increased by 0.32 million tonnes (4.4%) from the 2009 level. This reflects an increase in fossil fuel use from households due to a considerably colder and longer heating season in 2010.

Waste emissions show a decrease of 0.07 million tonnes (6.9%) below the 2009 level which reflects increased methane utilisation for electricity production relative to 2009. Landfill gas utilisation and on-site flaring offset over 70% of methane production in 2010.

The Government has released the promised review of National Climate Policy. On foot of the policy set out in the National Climate Change Strategy 2007-12, Ireland is on course to meet its binding commitment for the purposes of the Kyoto Protocol in the compliance period 2008-12. However, beyond 2012, Ireland has clear and challenging greenhouse gas mitigation targets for the 2013-20 period, which are binding under EU law and which must be addressed in the longer-term context of transition to a competitive, low-carbon economy.

“Completing the review was my immediate climate policy priority,” says Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government, Phil Hogan, TD. “It is an important stock-taking exercise, in terms both of the progress that has been achieved to date in reducing national greenhouse gas emissions and the deeper reductions to which Ireland, as a Member State of the European Union, is already committed to in the medium and longer term.”

A three pronged approach will be undertaken in order to develop the necessary policy mix to support an ambitious but realistic national mitigation agenda:

* An independent study will be carried out by the secretariat to the National Economic and Social Council;

* A public consultation, to be initiated by the Minister in 2012, will enable all stakeholders to engage in the policy development process; and

* Sectoral mitigation progress will be pursued through the Cabinet Committee on Climate Change and the Green Economy based on positive engagement with the relevant Departments where progress must be made if we are to meet our legally-binding EU targets.

As a first step towards a national 2050 low-carbon plan, the Minister announced that he is asking the secretariat to the National Economic and Social Council (NESC) to undertake an independent piece of analysis to inform the policy development process. In parallel with the analysis to be undertaken by the NESC secretariat, the Minister has signalled his intention to initiate a substantial period of consultation early in 2012.

Minister Hogan continues: “My objective, in line with the Programme for Government, is to introduce climate legislation. However, the right policy must be in place before legislation can be introduced. Environmental protection and a competitive economy are complementary and my priority is to make sure we have the appropriate policy in place in order to make a successful transition to a low-carbon future; legislation should underpin policy.”

Ireland can comply with its Kyoto commitments (2008-2012) with regard to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but is predicted to breach its annual obligations under the EU 2020 target, from 2016 onwards. This is according to the EPA’s recently published greenhouse gas emissions projections for the period 2010 to 2020.

The figures show the projected trends for greenhouse gases and give a picture of Ireland’s ability to meet EU and international targets with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. The projections have been submitted to the EU as required.  The projections update the previous set of national emission projections which were published in April 2010 by the EPA.

Two scenarios are developed – one based on policies and measures already in existence or being implemented, and the other on existing measures plus all planned policies and measures which are currently known.

”Our latest projections for greenhouse gas emissions show that Ireland will be able to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitment in 2010. However, the projected reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are a direct result of the current economic recession and economic outlook in the short term. In order to meet future targets, Ireland cannot rely on a recession and needs to transition to a low carbon economy,” comments Dr Mary Kelly, director general of EPA. “It is clear from our projections that the implementation of all existing and planned measures will not be sufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the required levels by 2020. Now is the time to make further planned reductions to ensure Ireland does not breach its target in 2016 as projected.”

EU 2020 Targets

Under EU 2020 Targets for non-ETS sector emissions, Ireland is required to deliver a 20% reduction in non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (relative to 2005 levels) and keep emissions below annual limits over the period 2013-2020. These non-ETS emissions come from agriculture, transport, residential and waste activities, and exclude main industrial activities which are covered under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.

Projections indicate that Ireland will breach its annual limit by 2016, in the best case scenario, and exceed its EU 2020 target by between 4.1 and 8.8 million tonnes of CO2e in 2020.

Sector Projections

Transport and agriculture are projected to account for 75% of total non-ETS emissions by 2020. This illustrates the important role that both transport and agriculture will have to play in developing mitigation options for reducing emissions in Ireland and for meeting our 2020 EU targets.

Growth in transport emissions is projected to slow significantly in comparison with historical growth rates. This is attributed to a slowdown in economic growth, which particularly impacts freight transport, and a saturation in car ownership levels as emigration increases.

Whilst agriculture is key to Ireland’s economic growth, employing 150,000 people and producing annual exports of more than Eur7 billion, emissions from the sector are projected to increase by 4% between 2009 and 2020, under the assumption that the Food Harvest 2020 targets will be achieved in full and EU milk quota will be removed.

While UN climate negotiations show no sign of significant progress, calculations from the European Wind Energy Association show that wind energy is achieving over a quarter of the emissions reductions required under the current Kyoto agreement.

The recent UN climate negotiations in Bangkok “produced little more than the agenda for further negotiations,” according to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA).

“Discussions continue to focus around the legal form of a new treaty,” explains Remi Gruet, EWEA regulatory affairs officer, “ignoring the key issue of how the international community will achieve the CO2 emissions reductions needed to prevent catastrophic climate change.”

He continues: “An international agreement remains absolutely vital but it’s clear that while there’s an impasse in the negotiations, many countries around the globe are getting on with avoiding CO2 emissions by installing wind energy and other renewable energy sources.”

EWEA calculations show that at the end of 2010, wind energy across the world avoided 255 Mt of CO2, equivalent to 26% of the emissions reductions commitment of industrialised countries under the Kyoto Protocol. By 2020, wind power should avoid between 46% and 69% of the pledges made in the Cancun agreement, depending on whether pledges are met to the full or the minimum.

Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas emissions fell by 5.4 million tonnes (7.9%) in 2009, according to provisional Greenhouse Gas emissions figures just released by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Agriculture remains the single largest contributor to the overall emissions, at 29.1% of the total, followed by energy (primarily power generation) and transport both at 21.1% share. The remainder is made up by the industry and commercial at 14.8%, the residential sector at 12.0% and waste at 1.9%.

The figures show that, while Ireland’s Kyoto limit in the period 2008-2012 is 62.84 million tonnes per annum, Ireland’s combined emissions in 2008 and 2009 were 6.2 million tonnes above this limit when account is taken of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and of approved Forest Sinks.

Dr Mary Kelly, director general of EPA.

”The magnitude of the reduction in Ireland’s annual Greenhouse Gas emissions in 2009 is unprecedented. In particular the 20% cut in emissions from the industry and commercial sector reflects the impact which the severe economic recession is having on industrial output in Ireland,” comments Dr Mary Kelly, director general of EPA.

“While the reduction is welcome in terms of meeting our emission limits for 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol, we need to use this opportunity to embed fundamental emission reductions in the economy in order to meet the very stringent EU 2020 limits which we face and to move permanently to a low carbon economy. We should not rely on a recession to meet our targets for the future.”

Dr Ken Macken, programme manager, EPA, adds: “For the first time in the twenty years for which Greenhouse Gas emissions have been published, this year EPA is reporting reductions in every sector across the board. While some of these reflect the impact of the many improvements which have already been taken to reduce our emissions, it is important to ensure further measures are taken in order to meet our emission limits for 2020 and beyond.”

The provisional summary report of Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions for 2009 can be found on the EPA Website at www.epa.ie/whatwedo/climate/emissionsinventoriesandprojections/nationalemissionsinventores/.

Sectoral Changes

Changes to sectoral emissions between 2008 and 2009 are as follows:
Industry and Commercial – Emissions decreased by 2.3 million tonnes (20.0%) from 11.6 million tonnes in 2008 to 9.3 million tonnes in 2009 reflecting decreases in CO2 from combustion sources and from cement production. In particular, emissions from the cement sector alone decreased by 1.3 million tonnes (38%).

Energy – Emissions in 2009 were 1.6 million tonnes lower than in 2008 which represents a 10.7% decrease. This reflects a reduced demand for electricity from end-users in Ireland. In addition, the contribution of renewables such as wind in electricity consumption increased to 14.1% in 2009 from 11.7% in 2008. Carbon-intensive fuels in power generation decreased in 2009 relative to 2008.

Transport emissions were 1.1 million tonnes lower in 2009 than in 2008.

Transport - Transport emissions were 1.1 million tonnes lower in 2009 than in 2008. This represents a decrease of 7.7%, following sustained increases in this sector since 1990. The decrease primarily reflects the impact of the economic downturn plus the changes in vehicle registration tax and road tax introduced in mid 2008. Emissions in 2009 were 156% higher than the 1990 transport emissions.

Agriculture - The emissions from agriculture decreased by 0.3 million tonnes (1.5%) in 2009, continuing the downward trend from the 1998 peak. The decline in emissions primarily reflects lower sheep and swine numbers as well as a reduction in gas oil use on farms.

Residential – Emissions in 2009 decreased by 699,111 tonnes (0.9%) from the 2008 level. This reflects a slight reduced demand for energy from the residential sector despite 2009 being similar weather wise to 2008.

Waste – Emissions for this sector show a decrease of 52,754 tonnes (4.2%) below the 2008 level which reflects increased methane flaring relative to 2008. Emissions in 2009 are 7.8 % lower than in 1990. The EPA continues to take account of data received from operators on the proportion of methane that is flared and utilised and therefore excluded from emissions reported under the waste sector.

The Carbon Windfall Levy, introduced in the Electricity Regulation (Amendment) (Carbon Revenue Levy) Act 2010, has been signed into law. The levy will apply to electricity generators and recover a substantial portion of the unearned carbon windfall gains that they currently receive through the Single Electricity Market.

Under the Kyoto Carbon Trading provisions, electricity generators have been provided free carbon credits in preparation for full carbon-trading post-2012. Generators have been able to earn a monetary return on these credits, earning excess ‘windfall’ profits at the expense of consumers. It is these gains that the levy seeks to recover.

Energy Minister Eamon Ryan, TD intends to use funds raised by the levy to help protect the competitiveness of Irish enterprise. Electricity costs are a key factor in maintaining competitiveness for Irish businesses, particularly energy-intensive exporters. The Government is of the view that it is imperative to support employment by focusing efforts on reducing costs, where feasible, for large energy users who are typically significant employers with both indigenous and multinational bases.

Energy Minister Eamon Ryan, TD.

“This levy is crucial in ensuring that Ireland continues to remain an attractive base for investment,” says the Minister. Statistics show that Irish electricity consumers benefitted from some of the largest falls in electricity prices across the EU over the past year, delivering real and measureable savings to consumers.

He continues: “Seeking that generators account for these gains and using this funding toward the reduction of electricity costs, will assist in maintaining Ireland’s competitiveness. Since the levy is emissions based and emissions from renewable generators are zero, it will also serve to provide a boost for competitiveness of the renewable energy sector.”

A recent report by the European Environment Agency shows that the European Union and all Member States but one are on track to meet their Kyoto Protocol commitments to limit and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whereas the Protocol requires that the EU-15 reduce average emissions during 2008–2012 to 8 % below 1990 levels, the latest projections indicate that the EU-15 will go further, reaching a total reduction of more than 13 % below the base year.

The EEA report shows that the reductions in the period 2008–2012 will be achieved through a combination of existing and additional policies, the purchase by governments of credits from emission-reducing projects outside the EU, the trading of emission allowances by participants in the EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) and forestry activities that absorb carbon from the atmosphere. The trading scheme primarily covers large carbon-emitting industries, which represent about 40 % of EU greenhouse gas emissions.

Looking further ahead, almost three quarters of the EU’s unilateral target to cut emissions to 20 % below 1990 levels by 2020 could be achieved domestically (ie without purchase of credits outside the EU).

Five EU-15 Member States (France, Germany, Greece, Sweden and the United Kingdom) have already reduced domestic emissions below their targets. OnlyAustria expects to fall short of its commitment under current conditions and will have to intensify its efforts to reduce emissions in non-ETS sectors.