A new Worldwatch Institute report stresses the urgent need for cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions. Although global emissions of carbon dioxide (C02) declined slightly in 2009, the beginnings of economic recovery led to an unprecedented emissions increase of 5.8 percent in 2010. In 2011, global atmospheric levels of CO2 reached a high of 391.3 parts per million (ppm), up from 388.6 ppm in 2010 and 280 ppm in pre-industrial times. According to new research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute (www.worldwatch.org) for its Vital Signs Online project, energy use represents the largest source of global CO2 emissions.

More than 70 percent of CO2 emissions result from the burning of fossil fuels for energy use, such as electricity generation, transportation, manufacturing, and construction. In 2009, electricity generation and heating alone accounted for 41 percent of all energy related CO2 emissions.

“Unfortunately for the future of climate, the global economy remains tightly coupled to fossil fuel combustion and carbon dioxide emissions,” says Worldwatch president Robert Engelman. “We gained a short respite from increases in C02 emissions – but only at the cost of an economic downturn. Now we are rebounding economically – at the cost of once again accelerating the approach of a high-risk warming that the world’s nations have so far been unable to address.”

The report highlights emissions increases in both industrialized and developing economies. Member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a group of industrialised countries, increased their emissions by 3.4 percent in 2010, while countries outside the OECD saw an increase of 7.6 percent. Although China was the world’s largest overall emitter in 2010 (followed by the United States, India, and Russia), an examination of emissions per capita tells a different story. China ranks only 61st in terms of the CO2 emitted per person. In India – the world’s third largest emitter – emissions per capita rank far below the world average. The United States, in contrast, ranks second overall and 10th in per capita emissions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has long stressed the urgent need for cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, according to the Worldwatch report, national governments have largely failed to bring about the needed reductions.

“The Kyoto Protocol is an important achievement because it is the only international instrument that sets legally binding targets, yet it is increasingly becoming symbolic as it now only regulates around 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions,” says author and Worldwatch’s climate and energy research associate, Xing Fu-Bertaux.

Global CO2 levels are now 45 percent above the 1990 level, which serves as the reference base year for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Several Annex I countries – including the United States, which signed but never ratified the Kyoto Protocol – will be unable to meet their original reductions targets. Since December 2011, Canada, Japan, and Russia, have chosen not to take on additional emissions targets within the second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol in the coming decade.

The power sector is the one of the world’s biggest consumers of water, but one source – wind power – uses very little water to produce electricity. All fossil fuels and nuclear need significant quantities of water to pump crude oil out of the ground, remove pollutants from power plant exhausts, flush residues after fossil fuels are burned and cool power plants.

Coal uses up to 3.2 cubic metres of water per megawatt hour (MWh) of electricity produced, gas uses up to 1.7 m3 per MWh and nuclear around 2.7 m3 per MWh, but wind power uses only a fraction of these amounts.

In the US, the Department of Energy estimates that with a 20% share of wind power in the power system by 2030, as much as 15 trillion litres of water could be saved. That is the equivalent to the annual consumption of more than 9 million US citizens.

“Water scarcity is becoming a global challenge exacerbated by population growth and climate change. Wind energy is key to preserving our water resources and fighting climate change,” argues Remi Gruet, EWEA senior regulatory affairs advisor for environment and climate change. “Governments should therefore take a much more holistic approach to energy policy and promote investments in wind energy with ambitious targets for renewable energy.”
Global water demand is expected to outstrip supply by 2030 as world population grows and demand for power rises, according to the 2030 water resources group.

The International Energy Agency has released its first Clean Energy Progress Report, which assesses global deployment of clean energy technologies and provides recommendations to countries on future action and spending. The report finds that while impressive progress has been made in developing clean energy technologies in recent years, the success stories are being overshadowed by surging demand for fossil fuels, which are outstripping deployment of clean energy technologies.

Coal has met 47% of the global new electricity demand over the past decade, eclipsing clean energy efforts made over the same period of time, which include improved implementation of energy efficiency measures and rapid growth in the use of renewable energy sources.

In order to change this status quo, the IEA argues that more aggressive clean energy policies are required, including the removal of fossil fuel subsidies and the implementation of transparent, predictable and adaptive incentives for cleaner energy options.
“Despite countries’ best efforts, the world is coming ever closer to missing targets that we believe are essential for meeting the goal agreed in Cancun to limit the growth in global average temperatures to less than 2 degrees Celsius,” points out Richard Jones, deputy executive director of the International Energy Agency. “A number of countries have shown that achieving rapid transition to cleaner technologies is possible, and can be done from the bottom up. We must see more ambitious, effective policies that respond to market signals while providing long-term, predictable support.”

Despite the persistent use of coal, the report notes that policy support over the last decade has led to a positive rise in renewable energy. The report cites solar and wind power as two areas where remarkable developments have been made.

In the case of solar energy, at least ten countries now have sizeable domestic markets, up from just three in 2000. Wind power also experienced dramatic growth over the last decade; global installed capacity at the end of 2010 was around 194 Gigawatts, more than ten times the 17 Gigawatts that were in place at the end of the year in 2000.

Despite this, and other progress with renewable sources of energy, the report states that worldwide renewable electricity generation since 1990 grew an average of 2.7% per year, which is less than the 3% growth seen for total electricity generation. Consequently, achieving the goal of halving global energy-related CO2 emissions by 2050 will require a doubling of all renewable generation use by 2020 from today’s level.

Alternative fuels have the potential to gradually replace fossil energy sources and make transport sustainable by 2050, according to a report presented to the European Commission by the stakeholder expert group on future transport fuels. The EU will need an oil-free and largely CO2-free energy supply for transport by 2050 due to the need to reduce its impact on the environment and concerns about the security of energy supply.

The expert group has for the first time developed a comprehensive approach covering the whole transport sector. Expected demand from all transport modes could be met through a combination of electricity (batteries or hydrogen/fuel cells) and biofuels as main options, synthetic fuels (increasingly from renewable resources) as a bridging option, methane (natural gas and biomethane) as complementary fuel, and LPG as supplement.

The Commission is currently revising existing policies and the report will feed into the ‘initiative on clean transport systems’, to be launched later this year. The initiative intends to develop a consistent long-term strategy for fully meeting the energy demands of the transport sector from alternative and sustainable sources by 2050.

According to the report, alternative fuels are the ultimate solution to decarbonise transport, by gradually substituting fossil energy sources. Technical and economic viability, efficient use of primary energy sources and market acceptance, however, will be decisive for a competitive acquisition of market share by the different fuels and vehicle technologies.

There is no single candidate for fuel substitution. Fuel demand and greenhouse gas challenges will most likely require the use of a mix of fuels, which can be produced from a large variety of primary energy sources. There is broad agreement that all sustainable fuels will be needed to fully meet the expected demand.

Different modes of transport require different options of alternative fuels. Fuels with higher energy density are more suited to longer-distance operations, such as road freight transport, maritime transport, and aviation. Compatibility of new fuels with current technologies and infrastructure, or the need for disruptive system changes should be taken into account as important factors, determining in particular the economics of the different options.

Ireland’s GDP could fall by as much as 7.5% if the world was to experience a sudden oil or gas price rise, according to a report launched by Siemens. The report, which examines the economic impacts for Ireland of different high oil and gas price scenarios, highlights the particular vulnerability of the Irish economy to such price shocks.

The findings of the report entitled ‘The Economic Impacts for Ireland of High Oil & Gas Prices; Pathways to risk mitigation and a low carbon future’, indicate that the impacts of an oil and gas price rise would be more severe on Ireland than other economies such as the UK, Europe and USA. “Ireland is particularly sensitive to this type of shock particularly the knock-on effects in global markets and trade. Results from the study show Ireland suffering more pronounced economic impacts and a slower recovery as compared with other countries,” according to Dr Werner Kruckow, chief executive of Siemens.

Significant Impact

As a small open economy heavily dependent on world demand for Irish exports, any major shock to the global economy would significantly impact on Ireland. Additionally, Ireland’s high dependency on imported fossil fuels would also further exacerbate the effects of any shock – with ramifications for business and society through higher electricity, transport and heating costs, increased levels of ‘fuel poverty’ and a loss of competitiveness.

The high oil and gas price scenarios presented in the report were constructed within plausible boundaries of future prices from 2010 to 2025. They illustrate alternative futures that may be triggered through one or a combination of events. The price scenarios were then evaluated in co-operation with the ESRI against a baseline scenario to offer a detailed analysis of the impact of each on GDP, inflation, interest rates and wage rates internationally and for Ireland, resulting in GDP drops of between 3.5%-7.5%.

One of the authors of the report Dr Andrew Kelly, AP EnvEcon, says: “These are scenarios not predictions, but you only need look back to the summer of 2008 to see how quickly the price of oil can rise and fall. Nobody can say with certainty what the future market price of oil and gas will be, however, in building these scenarios we set the boundaries within the broader international market outlooks on price. What could make these happen? In the years ahead there are a number of factors which may increasingly contribute to both higher and more volatile prices, including rising demand in emerging economies, natural disasters, political tension and conflict in regions of supply, and of course a diminishing supply pool from which to extract these resources at lower cost. It is another risk we face that should be factored into political decision making.”

Good News

The good news, according to the report, is that Ireland has options to reduce our risk exposure to some of the identified risks. “Ireland’s 80% dependency on imported oil and gas puts the economy at considerable risk. And yet Ireland is surrounded by an abundance of renewable resources that could reduce our risk of exposure, create employment opportunities and reduce emissions. Irish waters have the biggest wave heights, greatest tidal flows and strongest winds in Europe, giving us the potential advantage over other European countries to generate and export energy across the Continent,” comments Dr Werner Kruckow.

The report recommends a number of policy actions that Ireland could undertake on a national level. Ireland needs to develop a plan for a sustainable integrated energy system based on four strategic pillars and do so without delay. They are:

* Maximising Electricity Generation from Renewable Sources,

* Grid Upgrade and Integration into the European Grid,

* Promoting Energy Efficiency & Conservation,

* Maximising Electricity Usage in Transportation.

Siemens will make the following recommendations of policies and measures to Government in the coming weeks to build a sustainable energy system in Ireland;

* Develop a high level 2050 strategy plan with a measurable roadmap for the energy system in Ireland – covering the four pillars outlined above.

* Develop a ‘Carrot & Stick’ approach for business and public sector on energy savings and green house gas emissions. Support investment with tax incentives and favourable financing models.

* Electrifying the Transport Sector – Deliver rail related projects in Transport 21, run hybrid buses in Dublin, speed up implementation of electric cars and related infrastructure. Electrify the national rail network.

* Position Ireland as an attractive test-bed for sustainable pilot projects and encourage industry to participate and lead.

* Modify the Public Procurement Process to take into account life cycle costs and support quick roll-out of projects in the sustainability area.

Bord na Mona has reported a slight drop in operating profits from Eur23.8m to Eur23.0m for the year ending March 2010 on turnover down 4% to Eur384.0m. The operating profit margin edged up to 6.0% compared to 5.9% the previous year.

“These figures reflect a very solid performance for Bord na Mona in a challenging business environment. Despite the unprecedented weather impact on our feedstock supply and stock losses due to severe flooding we managed to produce a result in line with our expectations,” comments Gabriel D’Arcy, chief executive of Bord na Mona. “Overall our 2009/10 results support our strategic decision to diversify the business of Bord na Mona away from a reliance on peat.”

Bord na Mona’s vision ‘A New Contract With Nature’ marks the beginning of a transition from traditional businesses, heavily dependent on peat and fossil fuels – to a new, more sustainable business, focused on resource recovery, wind energy, biomass, environmental products, district heating and ecotourism.

Renewable Energy

On the renewable energy front, last year lodged two new planning applications to expand its wind energy portfolio by 120 MW. The group recently received planning permission for a Eur120m 80 MW wind farm at Mount Lucas in Offaly. Progress is also being been made on Bord na Mona’s 300 MW Oweninny wind farm at Bellacorick, County Mayo, which will be the biggest on shore wind farm in Ireland. Bord na Mona advanced its co-fuelling agenda during the year with 7.8% of biomass feedstock replacing peat into its Edenderry Power station. This is part of our ongoing strategy to ensure the plant will be less peat dependent in the future.

Environmental

In 2009 Bord na Mona Environmental won some important new contracts in Hong Kong, Paris, the UK and Italy for its market leading environmental technology. Bord na Mona is now a global leader in removing odour and emissions from waste water and solid waste treatment plants using biological techniques. Indeed, the group has now completed some 600 installations in four continents with patented technologies using peat and seashells.

Resource Recovery and Sustainability

Bord na Mona’s Resource Recovery business grew in 2009/10 as it expanded its domestic customer base and won some major commercial contracts. The group achieved a diversion from landfill of some 54% and to accelerate this figure it is investigating a range of technology options including the feasibility of a Mechanical and Biological Treatment plant at its waste technology site in Drehid, County Kildare.

Over the past year Bord na Mona also made progress on all its key sustainability indicators. The co-fuelling of Edenderry Power with biomass rose from 2.3% to 7.8% while the rate of peat dilution in its horticultural growing media increased from 22.5 to 24%. The amount of waste diverted from landfill increased from 50% to 54%, and turnover from sustainable activities increased by 11% to Eur74.0m.