Ireland will generate enough renewable energy by 2040 to effectively cover 100% of the nation’s energy requirements, according to Peter Harte, chairperson of the Irish Wind Energy Association’s Markets Committee. He also sees Ireland becoming a carbon-free power and transport nation, with most, if not all, of our current fossil fuel plants decommissioned by then.

“While there may still be some fossil fuels used in shipping and aviation, we could easily generate and export so much wind energy by 2040 from Ireland that the net effect is that we are 100% powered by renewable energy by then,” he explains. “Fossil fuel plants run for 30 to 45 years so decisions we made, even in the last few years, are already determining our energy mix in the years ahead. So much has been concentrated at an Irish and EU level on meeting 2020 targets that there is an energy policy vacuum beyond that and we really need to start thinking ahead.”

He continues: “Europe has already published its ‘Roadmap to a low carbon society’, which outlines the need for a fully decarbonised power sector by 2050 and we need to start thinking and acting long term as well, not least as this presents both challenges and opportunities for Ireland. If we are to achieve a carbon-free power sector by 2050, then no new carbon-emitting plants can be built after 2015. If electricity then is carbon-free, we can potentially have a decarbonised transport system.”

Other elements of his 2040 energy vision include:

* A decarbonised heating system by virtue of heat pumps delivering 4kW of green heating output for only 1kW of green electricity input.

* A reduction in energy demand by 20-30% due to energy efficiency initiatives (principally electric vehicles, heat pumps and insulation).

* Ireland will be heavily interconnected with European electricity (and hence energy) markets.

* Ireland will contribute vast quantities of the renewable energy – wind, tidal and wave – requirements for Europe as we will produce it cheaper than anywhere else.

* In return Ireland will purchase flexible low carbon energy from Europe (solar from Spain, nuclear from France, hydro from Norway, biomass from Eastern Europe etc.).

The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has released a major new report addressing two of the British Government’s toughest energy policy goals – delivering reliable energy to consumers while meeting its legal commitment to reduce C02 emissions by 80% by 2050.

The report concludes that:

* The UK electricity sector must be decarbonised by 2050, by which time oil use will be virtually eliminated;

* Tougher energy efficiency measures could reduce exposure to volatile energy markets, buying time before full decarbonisation of the electricity system takes place;

New and improved low-carbon technologies need a reliable carbon price; a market signal of around £200/tonne C02 by 2050, 15 times the current EU carbon price, is needed to hit the long-term target. This rises to £300-350/tonne C02 if action is delayed or more stringent targets are set.

The report finds that decarbonising the electricity system with nuclear, renewables and coal plant fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) would unlock new potential, allowing electricity to be increasingly used in transport and buildings. A low-carbon energy system could be a high-electricity system.

But it also shows that the more aggressive pursuit of energy efficiency would make the UK system more secure while still leaving it on track to hit the 2050 target. Under this scenario, energy efficiency provides insurance against delays in the development of low carbon technologies, allowing decarbonisation to take place a decade later.

Report findings include:

* Energy efficiency is the most cost-effective way of reducing energy demand and carbon emissions, while protecting vulnerable consumers from higher energy prices;

* None of the UKERC scenarios foresee renewable energy going in sufficiently quickly to meet the target in the EU Climate and Energy Package;

* Lifestyle changes could dramatically reduce the cost of meeting CO2 targets. This could involve phasing out petrol/diesel vehicles in town and city centres by 2050, though the use of vans could increase as a result of restrictions on HGVs and an increase in internet shopping. Halving energy use in homes is possible with a combination of major efficiency improvements and modest lifestyle change;

* Reducing CO2 emissions leads, for the most part, to reductions in other environmental emissions; the release of some pollutants, notably sulphur dioxide, will fall substantially. However, pressures on water and land use will need to be managed, as will some atmospheric emissions and radioactive releases;

* Major gas shocks could have cost impacts measured in £billions, mainly through lost supplies to industrial consumers. More investment in gas storage or import facilities could mitigate these impacts;

* Investing in research and technological innovation would significantly reduce the cost of reaching CO2 targets; substantial increases in R&D expenditure appear justified;

* Early action on carbon reduction implies taking a longer-term view of investment in a low-carbon energy system: investing more in infrastructure and solutions such as low carbon buildings, hydrogen fuel cells and electric vehicles;

* Microgeneration offers a radically different approach to meeting energy needs, but capital cost and performance are currently barriers for many technologies. However, it could be important in meeting future residential heating needs, and could help catalyse change towards low carbon lifestyles.

Commenting on the findings, Professor Jim Skea, research director at UKERC says: “UK energy policy goals are extraordinarily ambitious. Meeting them will require efforts well beyond the bounds of historical experience. By looking at the energy system in the round, our researchers have shown not only that the goals can be met but that it is possible to reconcile them with wider technological, social and environmental changes.”